By JUSTIN JUOZAPAVICIUS
With only about two-dozen twisters recorded so far this year during a
period when 100 or more are typical, the U.S. appears to be in a tornado
drought as cool, stable air prevents the ingredients of the violent
storms from coming together, meteorologists said Friday.
No tornadoes have been reported so far in March, when tornado season
often begins ramping up for parts of the country. The last time the U.S.
had no twisters in March was nearly 50 years ago, according to figures
from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Storm
Prediction Center in Norman.
Forecasters at the prediction center reported earlier this week that
since the beginning of the year, it has issued only four tornado watches
and no severe thunderstorm watches — less than 10 percent of the
average 52 tornado watches issued by mid-March. The center hasn't issued
a watch in March, something that's never happened in its record of
watches dating to 1970, said Greg Carbin, warning coordination
meteorologist for NOAA's Storm Prediction Center.
"Every day that goes by is quite remarkable (because) we're normally
seeing very active day-to-day weather somewhere in the country," Carbin
said. "Four watches is also unprecedented."
Even in tornado-prone Oklahoma,
the dominant weather pattern of cold, stable air that prevents a
tornado's ingredients from coming together means the state is again
starting storm season in sluggish fashion, a repeat of the year before,
said state climatologist Gary McManus.
"We haven't had the prime conditions here in Tornado Alley because the
predominant weather pattern doesn't lend itself to severe weather,"
McManus said. "Not only are we not seeing the tornadoes, we're not
seeing the supercell storm systems that spawn these tornadoes."
Adam Houston, associate professor of atmospheric science at the
University of Nebraska-Lincoln, cautioned that with spring just
starting, so too is the peak time for tornadoes, and conditions are
likely to change. For example, it was May when twisters raked the
Oklahoma City suburbs of Moore and El Reno during a two-week period in
2013, killing dozens of people and injuring hundreds more.
"January and February are not active months, so (the tornado drought)
hasn't been particularly surprising," he said. "If we're having this
conversation in June, then there would be something substantial here."
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