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OPEC’s Clash With U.S. Oil Is Nearing Its Day of Reckoning


By Grant Smith
The clash between OPEC and America’s oil industry is reaching a day of reckoning.
The U.S. shale revolution is on course to be the greatest oil and gas boom in history, turning a nation once at the mercy of foreign imports into a global player. That seismic shift shattered the dominance of Saudi Arabia and the OPEC cartel, forcing them into an alliance with long-time rival Russia to keep a grip on world markets.

So far, it’s worked -- global oil stockpiles are draining and prices are near two-year highs. But as the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and Russia prepare to meet in Vienna this week to extend production cuts, ministers have little idea how U.S. shale production will respond in 2018.

“The production cuts are effective -- it was absolutely the right decision, and the fact of striking a deal with Russia was crucial,” said Paolo Scaroni, vice-chairman of NM Rothschild & Sons and former chief executive officer of Italian oil giant Eni SpA. Nonetheless, “OPEC has not the same power. The U.S. becoming the biggest producer of oil in the world is a dramatic change.”

For OPEC members, the stakes couldn’t be higher. Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman is embarking on a radical economic transformation of the kingdom, including a partial sale of its state oil company that could be the largest public offering in history. Venezuela, reeling from years of recession and a crushing debt burden, is on the brink of political implosion.

Eroding Surplus

The producers’ efforts to clear the oil surplus are starting to pay off. They’ve drained excess inventories in developed nations this year by 183 million barrels, or more than half of the glut, which now stands at about 154 million barrels, according to OPEC data. That has revived London-traded crude futures, which sank below $45 a barrel this summer, to a two-year high of $64.65 on Nov. 7.
Click for a TOPLive Q&A with oil strategist Julian Lee at 9 a.m. New York time.

That success goes some way to countering accusations that OPEC had lapsed from the dominant market force of the 1970s and 1980s into irrelevance. Although its 14 members still pump 40 percent of the world’s oil, their share has dwindled from the days when OPEC held the global economy in thrall.

“People may have thought that OPEC was dead, but Saudi Minister Khalid Al-Falih has succeeded in building agreements and alliances within OPEC and non-OPEC, such as Russia, to restrain production,” said Luis Giusti, an adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies and former CEO of state-run Petroleos de Venezuela SA.

Price Paradox

There are even signs that OPEC’s opponents, the dozens of drillers tapping shale-oil deposits in Texas and North Dakota, are losing momentum. Companies may have already squeezed costs and maximized productivity as much as possible, and their investors are finally insisting profits are returned to them rather than re-invested in more drilling.

Mark Papa, CEO of Centennial Resource Development Inc. and considered one of the industry’s founders, said in September that shale “is not nearly the Big Bad Wolf that everybody thinks.”

A year-long ramp-up in drilling by American operators appeared to hit a plateau in July, data from Baker Hughes Inc. shows, and companies such as Pioneer Natural Resources Co. have lowered their output targets.

The outlook for shale is so clouded that when OPEC officials invited industry experts to brief them on the topic last week, they were disturbed by the diversity of opinions. Veteran crude trader Andy Hall, whose decision to close his main hedge fund this year was partly driven by shale’s unpredictability, told the organization that 2018 growth estimates vary from 500,000 barrels a day to 1.7 million a day.

Yet, the basic paradox confronting OPEC is that the more it succeeds in bolstering prices, the more it emboldens shale explorers and other competitors, said Mike Wittner, head of oil market research at Societe Generale SA in New York.

Increases in U.S. oil production next year will be big enough to cancel much of the sacrifices made by OPEC and Russia, leaving the surplus more or less intact, forecasts from the International Energy Agency show. The recent rebound in prices could energize shale even further.

Instead of being able to declare victory next year and restore the production they’ve halted, OPEC may find itself trapped in an open-ended struggle, Wittner said.

Catch-22

“Now that they’re in it, I don’t see how they get out of it,” said Wittner. “They need to continue supply management for the foreseeable future.”

The need to cooperate indefinitely could strain the Saudi-Russia partnership.

While the Saudi-Russia alliance has allowed them to call a “truce in the battle for market share,” they may end up fighting over customers again when faced with a relentless tide of crude exports from the U.S., said Ed Morse, head of commodities research at Citigroup Inc. in New York.

With U.S. crude exports climbing from close to zero three years ago to now exceeding the combined shipments of OPEC’s smallest members, it increasingly looks as if the face-off between the cartel and what was formerly its biggest customer “has an endgame,” Morse said.

“And the endgame is there’s an awful lot of shale in the world.”

U.S. New-Home Sales Unexpectedly Rise to Highest in a Decade

Updated on
U.S. purchases of new homes unexpectedly advanced in broad fashion last month, reaching the strongest pace in a decade and offering an encouraging signal for residential construction, according to government data released Monday.

The report showed the U.S. South region continued to recover from a pair of hurricanes. Purchases in other areas of the country, including a 17.9 percent surge in the Midwest, also climbed.
The number of properties sold in which construction hadn’t yet started reached the highest level since January 2007, signaling residential construction will accelerate in coming months.

A steady job market and low mortgage costs are helping propel demand for real estate and pushing up property prices. At the same time, it’s a hurdle for some prospective buyers, especially younger Americans and those entering the market for the first time. The average selling price in October reached a record high $400,200, probably reflecting construction of higher-end homes.
New-home sales, tabulated when contracts get signed, account for about 10 percent of the market. They’re considered a timelier barometer than purchases of previously owned homes, which are calculated when contracts close and are reported by the National Association of Realtors.

Other Details

  • Number of homes sold but not yet started rose to 247,000 in October from 184,000; another 221,000 dwellings sold were already under construction
  • Commerce Department said there was 90 percent confidence that the change in sales last month ranged from an 11.8 percent drop to a 24.2 percent increase, underscoring the volatility of the data
  • Report released jointly by the Census Bureau and Department of Housing and Urban Development in Washington
— With assistance by Kristy Scheuble



Shane's IHeart Radio Interview during the Real Laughs Show 104.1 FM will air on 11.30.17!


IHeart Radio's Miguel Colon Jr interviewed Businessman, Speaker & Marine Shane Johnson after returning from his Hike Across America. This 10 minute segment will air on 11.30.17 during the Real Laugh Show 104.1 FM in Orlando, FL.
Hike Across America powered by Clean the World and the Booyah Veteran Bus Project completed their 3,047 Mile Journey to raise awareness for Veteran Suicide, Veteran Homelessness, and inspire the common good of man to pursue your WHY with relentless dedication, motivation, and all out bad assery!



3,047 miles, 20 cities, 9 states, 8 tanks of gas, 10 cases of water, 1 pair of Aces shoes, 6 state parks, 3 hotels, 22 homeless shelters, 10,000 hygiene kits, 1,000 inspired homeless, over 10,000 found their Why, 50 hours of video, 15 videos, 1 documentary, 2 marathons, 8 In-N-Out visits, 1 pawn shop Nikon camera, a million mosquitoes and a thousand memories. Our Hike Across America mission is complete!

Businessman, Speaker, Marine Shane Johnson began his Hike Across America in Orlando on September 13th after being delayed by hurricane Irma.

Traveling across the country takes several days when you're driving, but running across in 65 days is a big challenge. Shane Johnson a Marine said challenges are what he lives for and as a veteran he said the work is never over even after leaving the battlefield.



"Our job is to continue to serve no matter what in any capacity forever once we take our oath to the country," said Johnson.

Johnson is also the founder of the Booyah Veteran Bus Project. Shane partnered with the Clean the World Foundation to launch this Hike Across America initiative. It targets homeless veterans and the challenges they face going from active duty to civilian life.



The Department of Housing and Urban Development estimates more than 39,000 veterans are homeless. Johnson said the number is so high due to the lack of leaders like him pushing these veterans to strive for a better future.

"We are not doing enough of what I feel that I am trying to do. It's to truly engage to get in there create jobs, create businesses, inspire them to do things to get off their buts to make things happen because they have everything they need they just need more leaders to tell them that and then push them."


 

Along his journey Shane shared his inspirational message of hope, persistence & responsibility at homeless shelters in over 20 cities and handed out 10,000 hygiene kits provided by Clean The World to those in need.


During his visit to Phoenix Shane spoke to the  GoDaddy team at a hygiene kit building event. Over 800 kits were put together & shipped.

Local and National news organizations such as CBS, Fox, ABC, IHeart Radio and USA Today caught up with Shane along the way to help spread the mission.



On Oct 8th Shane began running rather than hiking the 22 miles. He also entered marathons and the Trails of Glory Desert Dash ultra-marathon at Red Rock Canyon, Las Vegas. A grueling 41.5 miles of rough desert terrain with varying elevations. On the final leg of Hike Across America Shane decided to run a epic 100 miles nonstop from Malibu to Oceanside.



Shane also participated in the Las Vegas Veterans Day Parade. This parade is second in size only to New York's parade.



After completing this challenge,  Johnson will run through 4 deserts next year, that's 155 miles in seven days. He also said he hopes to inspire others to face the challenges they hope to conquer.  

Shane  has spoken at major events and corporations including Wreathes Across America, GoDaddy, Caesars Entertainment, Central Florida School of Business & Clean The World.



Associated Press award winning photojournalist Ray Tharaldson is partnering with Full Sail University to produce the documentary "3,000 Miles For Your Why" about Shane's journey  across America.

Ray has worked as an editor/photojournalist for CBS WSBT/22, Fox WSJV/28, PBS WNIT/34 and freelanced for CBN & Fox NY.

Thank you to all the sponsors and support along the way.
Track Shack
Homestar Solar Solutions
Caesars Entertainment
Wells Fargo
Best Western Hotels & Resorts
Freshorize
CLIF Bar
Booyah Productions
Booyah MortgageYellow Bird

And many more!

Please visit us for more information about how you can make a difference at:

www.booyahproduction.blogspot.com
www.booyahveteranbusproject.com https://yellowbirdconsulting.blogspot.com
www.cleantheworld.org/hike
 #getonthebuswithus
#hikeacrossamerica
#booyahveteranbusproject
For information about speaking engagements contact: Missy Burchart at: (407) 448-8538